Irish General Election Predictions: Key Winners and Losers

The 2024 Irish General Election will likely be a turning point for Ireland’s political scene. As dissatisfaction with mainstream parties grows, Sinn Féin has emerged as the frontrunner. Meanwhile, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the Green Party face rising challenges. Smaller parties and independents also aim to gain ground. Here’s a detailed look at who’s likely to win, hold, or lose seats.

1. Sinn Féin: Potential Key Winner in 2024 Irish General Election

Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald, is set to make major gains. Their strong focus on housing and social justice has resonated with voters, especially among younger generations.

Likely Gains:

• Expect Sinn Féin to increase their presence in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, and Waterford.
• They’re also likely to gain in Dublin Central, South-West, and North-West.

Likely Losses:

• The North-West of Ireland may remain a challenging area, where Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael still have strong support.

2. Fine Gael’s Struggles and Predicted Decline in the Irish General Election

Under Simon Harris, Fine Gael has struggled. Controversies like the
Newtown Mount Kennedy IPAS Centre and leadership concerns have made voters more critical.

Likely Losses:

• Simon Harris could lose his seat in Wicklow, following his cold dismissal of a disability worker.
• Paschal Donohoe, caught up in the undeclared donations scandal, may lose his seat in Dublin Central.
• Other Fine Gael losses are expected across Cork, Kildare, and Meath.

3. Fianna Fáil: Holding Steady Amid Turmoil

Though Fianna Fáil still holds a presence, their declining popularity makes them vulnerable to challenges, especially from Sinn Féin.

Likely Gains:

• They may retain strongholds in Louth, Monaghan, and rural Leinster constituencies.

Likely Losses:

• Expect Fianna Fáil to lose seats in Dublin and South Leinster, areas where Sinn Féin and other progressive parties are making strides.

4. The Green Party: Struggling Amid Change

After Eamon Ryan’s resignation in July 2024, Roderic O’Gorman now leads the Green Party. Their support has waned, especially in urban areas.

Likely Losses:

• Roderic O’Gorman is vulnerable in Dublin West.
• The Green Party will struggle to hold seats in Cork South-West and other urban areas.

5. Smaller Parties and Independents: A Fragmented Opposition In The Irish General Election

While Ireland First and the National Party continue to push for a stronger presence, they are unlikely to secure seats in the 2024 election.

Ireland First:

Led by Derek Blighe, Ireland First will likely gain support in Cork. However, despite their vocal opposition to mainstream policies, the party is not expected to win many seats.

The National Party:

After the ousting of Justin Barrett, the National Party will struggle. They’re likely to lose support and not secure any seats.

Independents:

Independents will hold a small but significant presence. Those tied to government policies may lose support, particularly in urban constituencies. However, expect Independents to hold around 12 seats.

6. Labour Party: Struggling to Rebuild

The Labour Party faces a tough battle. Their alignment with previous austerity measures still haunts them. Their recovery will depend on how they address housing and workers’ rights.

Likely Gains:

• Labour will hold onto seats in Limerick and Waterford.

Likely Losses:

• In Dublin, Labour will lose support to Sinn Féin and Social Democrats. They’re likely to lose two seats.

7. Social Democrats and PBP: Progressive Surge

The Social Democrats and People Before Profit are growing. They appeal to voters focused on progressive policies such as housing, economic equality, and workers’ rights.

Likely Gains:

• Both parties are expected to gain seats in Dublin South-West, Cork North-Central, and Limerick.

Summary of Predicted Seat Breakdown:

• Sinn Féin: 40 (+10)
• Fine Gael: 32 (-15)
• Fianna Fáil: 30 (-7)
• Green Party: 6 (-4)
• Social Democrats: 7 (+3)
• People Before Profit: 3 (+1)
• Labour Party: 5 (-2)
• Ireland First: 1 (+1)
• The National Party: 0 (no change)
• Independents: 12 (-1)

Final Thoughts: A Shifting Political Landscape

The 2024 Irish General Election promises significant changes. Sinn Féin is expected to dominate, while Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will face considerable declines. The Green Party will struggle, and Ireland First and the National Party are unlikely to secure any seats. Smaller parties, particularly the Social Democrats and People Before Profit, will see steady gains as the electorate demands more progressive policies. Voters will play a critical role in shaping Ireland’s future, and this election marks the beginning of a new chapter in the country’s political history.

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